Wedderburn farmer and Central Otago District Maniototo ward councillor Stu Duncan thinks local farmers will cope with El Niño.

Stu said there had been a lot of rain from the West Coast and dams were looking good.

The Otago Regional council has urged farmers to consider the possible impacts of an El Niño summer on their businesses.

NIWA forecasts a 100% chance of El Niño continuing October through December and a more than 95% chance it will persist through summer.

ORC manager science Tom Dyer said Otago’s current river flows and soil moisture content were normal, or slightly higher than normal for this time of year.

“The 35-day forecast is for slightly drier conditions than normal, although we do not expect significant drought-related issues across much of the region over that timeframe,” he said.

However, Tom said farmers should give consideration to preparing for an El Niño summer and the ORC would continue to monitor weather conditions and provide updates.

ORC acting manager, regulatory Joanna Gilroy said farmers needed to consider making a plan with contingencies, and “act on it earlier rather than later”.

“Having a plan now will help to support making decisions later on,” she said.

“Plenty of thought should be given to water needs over summer, how water will be managed and what feed requirements there might be,” she said.

Farmers should now check their irrigation and stock drinking water systems for any faults, undertake any deferred maintenance and consider ordering spare parts.

Joanna said ORC could assist farmers with management of water takes, especially if water takes become restricted in coming months.

Tom said river and rainfall predictions may be close to or above average for Otago, but long periods of wind can dry out soils in a short time.

Stu said there was a lot of moisture in the ground and that was a good sign for farmers.

While El Niño is locked in, river and rainfall are expected to be average to below average for east Otago and average to above average for inland Otago, the ORC said.

On NIWA’s drought index, there are no forecast hotspots over the next 35 days in Otago, however the rainfall predictions show the north-eastern areas of the region could start to dry out.