Central Otago is already booming, and a new council report suggests the growth could accelerate even further over the next decade, reaching “breaking point” without intervention and investment.

The ‘Central Otago Helicopter View’ report forecasts 6,650 new dwellings by 2035, pushing the district’s population to 41,500 - a 63 percent jump from 2025.

The report was presented to the mayor and councillors at a meeting on Wednesday (August 27) by Central Otago District Council (CODC) staffer and regional deals lead Dylan Rushbrook.

Dylan said the figures assume “zero constraints”, meaning they don’t account for potential shortages in construction labour or materials, or macro factors like interest rates.

Plus, major projects such as a proposed gold mine at Bendigo and an international airport at Tarras have not been factored in.

“It is reasonable to expect both those projects would have an impact on the level of certainty of residential developments,” Dylan said.

“Such growth without interventions will push social infrastructure to breaking point. It is also clear hard infrastructure delivered by council and central government will not cope with such growth without investment.”

The report highlights the need for a coordinated approach between the district council, neighbouring councils, regional council, and central government. 

CODC mayor Tamah Alley said the approach - evident in the current regional deals negotiations - is new territory.

“It is a completely new way of negotiating a future that genuinely looks at long-term outcomes well beyond election cycles,” she said.

A joint committee with representatives from CODC, Otago Regional Council and Queenstown Lakes District Council is regularly meeting ahead of negotiations beginning in force with Wellington decision makers.

Dylan said staff and joint committee members will keep councillors updated as any deals progress, with the council remaining the final decision-maker on any deal.

“With the forecast level of growth as outlined in this report, a co-ordinated approach between OCL [Otago Central Lakes] and central government gives ourselves the best chance at best managing the impacts of exponential growth,” he said.

However he managed expectations, saying, “not everything asked for” should be expected in round one.

For more details, the full report is available on page 152 of the agenda from the August 27 council meeting, available on the council’s website.

Have a story to share or comment to make? Contact [email protected]