The Christchurch earthquake in 2011 claimed 185 lives and reminded mainlanders of the severity of earthquake risk in the South Island.

Central Otago residents are not immune to earthquakes and we too need to be prepared according to experts.

AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8) is a programme of scientific modelling, coordinated response planning and community engagement designed to build resilience to the next Alpine Fault earthquake, across the South Island.

The biannual AF8 Roadshow: The Science Beneath Our Feet, is visiting Central this week, and a leading researcher on earthquakes in mountain environments is the keynote speaker.

Presenting at the free talk in Alexandra is the University of Canterbury’s (UC) Dr Tom Robinson, the AF8 science lead, who holds a PhD in Hazard Management (UC) as well as an Masters of Science in Geology and Geophysics from London’s Imperial College. 

Tom is a disaster risk specialist, with a specific focus on earthquakes in mountain environments – including New Zealand and Nepal. 

He is an expert in spatial modelling of earthquake-generated landslide hazard and risk, and scenario modelling with a focus on large-scale simulations for governments, militaries, and humanitarians for emergency response and disaster risk reduction. 

The AF8 website said research indicates there is a 75 per cent probability of an Alpine Fault earthquake occurring in the next 50 years, and that there is a four out of five chance that it will be a magnitude 8+ event.

Geological evidence also shows the Alpine Fault has a remarkably regular history of producing large earthquakes.

During the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that’s every 300 years.

The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children.

The roadshow is in Alexandra on Wednesday, 2 April, Skird St Community Theatre, 6.30 - 8.30pm.

AF8 project partners include the six South Island Emergency Management Groups, Toka Tū Ake EQC, QuakeCoRE: NZ Centre for Earthquake, Resilience to Nature’s Challenges and GNS Science.

AF8 is a ‘boundary organisation’ - an interdisciplinary partnership between research, policy and practice designed to support, build and coordinate readiness and response capability for the next great Alpine Fault earthquake, across the South Island.

The location of the AF and the emergency management groups in Te Waipounamu. PHOTO: AF8

Governance and leadership for the programme is provided by the AF8 Steering Group comprising the six South Island Group Managers, science leaders and a National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) representative. 

AF8 has no statutory role, and will not take on the role of managing a response to an Alpine Fault earthquake – these responsibilities lie with the EM Groups, NEMA and their partner agencies – the AF8 programme provides a critical platform to enable planning and preparedness.

Emergency Management Southland acts as the chair and the administrative authority for AF8. West Coast Emergency Management currently acts as the deputy chair.

Check out the Civil Defence button on The Central App for more advice,

What’s On: AF8 Roadshow: Public Science Talk

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