A recent survey of more than 1,000 dairy, sheep, beef, and arable farmers found that confidence is at historic lows, and Central farmers are no different according to Federated Farmers (FF) spokespeople.

FF Otago arable chair and Maniototo farmer Emma Crutchley said it was a “perfect storm of uncertainty” for local farmers. 

“The low trend has carried on and continues to get worse…due to multiple drivers, weather events coupled with inflation, high interest rates, dropping commodity prices and an intense amount of regulatory change. 

Emma said farmers are incredibly resilient and can breeze through one or two of these challenges well.

“It's a complex topic to draw attention to, we need to be aware that highlighting this level of negativity can in itself be a self fulfilling prophecy and that's unhelpful.

“Federated Farmers has a key role to [highlight] this pressure on politicians and raising this alarm, also banks and other organisations need to step up and support our sector where they can.”

She said a long term mindset and smaller community organisations also can make a difference to the sector. 

“We are playing a long game and many of the things that drew us to farming in the first place are still there and that's important.”

FF Otago president Luke Kane said low confidence was accurate for the district. 

“Interest rates are taking their toll… although there is a slight improvement there.”

Luke said the weather was always a compounding and complicating factor on the farm.

“West Otago and South Otago have been the wettest since 1993. While June had the lowest rainfall and great weather, that’s now not the case. In the first nine days of August we got the rainfall we would normally receive for a month.

“The current position on farm is not pretty, it’s extremely wet… many are getting well into calving, and that doesn't stop for the weather.”

Luke said farmer wellbeing was an interesting topic closely connected to the pressures farmers were feeling. 

“[Wellbeing] is certainly front of mind for me and my family as my father in law took his own life a few years ago.

“Social interaction is so important, whether it is off farm sport, A & P or the PTA.. .[just] getting together and even though you might talk about what’s going on on the farm.”

He said the current regulatory environment was also creating uncertainty for farmers and increasing costs.

“The main thing that upsets most farmers is the unknown… people aren’t averse to doing things good for the environment that makes sense. 

Luke said he understands why the government is, in some instances, looking for “one rule that fits” but that Otago’s environment was so diverse that what works for one area doesn't work elsewhere in the province. 

FF president Wayne Langford said when farmers aren’t profitable or feeling confident, they stop spending money and try to cut any costs they can from their business, and the implications of that flow right through the economy.

The Farmer Confidence survey conducted in July 2023, showed the four biggest farmer concerns were debt, interest and banks, regulation and compliance costs, and climate change and emissions trading scheme policy. 

"This is the second successive farmer confidence survey to set a new record low with a steep decline over the last six months - so we’re sounding the alarm," Wayne said.

"The deterioration in farmer profit has occurred at frightening speed. This time last year, just 3.5 per cent of farmers reported making a loss. That figure jumped to 27 per cent in this survey, which was conducted prior to Fonterra announcing its payout downgrade.”

Current perceptions of economic conditions by industry group (from FF survey). PHOTO: Supplied

Profitability was lowest in the meat and wool sector. Twenty nine per cent of respondents reported making a profit, 27 per cent reported making a loss, resulting in a net 1.8 per cent of respondents currently making a profit.

This is a decline from July 2022 when 72 per cent were making a profit and only 3.5 per cent were making a loss.

Read more: Federated Farmers top priorities for Central.