I’m a numbers kind-of guy, which is handy in my job. I think a big part of the attraction for me is that numbers are solid, they are incontrovertible, they are what they are.

So, here’s a number that I saw this week from Infometrics that you might find interesting. The Central Otago District population grew by 2.5 per cent in 2021, putting us again in the top five (fourth this time) territorial authority for population growth in New Zealand.

This time we were ahead of our neighbour, and usual podium finisher, Queenstown Lakes (1.9 per cent) and way ahead of our other neighbours Waitaki (0.9 per cent) Clutha (0.5 per cent), Dunedin (0.4 per cent) and Southland (0.0 per cent).  

Just out of interest, the drift to the big smoke appears to have stopped with Auckland City being one of only six territorial authorities to record negative growth (-0.1 per cent).

Numbers give a clear picture, but they don’t tell a story as well as words do, so here’s some context to those numbers.

I’ve been mayor since 2016; at that time our population was 20,200. As of 2021, it is 24,800. That is a difference of 4,600 people. That means that just slightly more people have made Central Otago their home since I’ve been mayor than lived in Cromwell when I took up the role.

Think about that for a moment because I find it a stunning thing to contemplate. We had the equivalent number of people move here in the last six years than lived in what is now our biggest town six years ago.

It also implies (and this is a very rough estimation as we don’t know the number of people who left the district in the same time period, birth to death rates and so forth) that one in five people currently living in Central Otago didn’t live here six years ago.

A lot of that growth has been focussed in and around Cromwell (that’s not news). The population in the wider Cromwell basin was 7,130 in 2016 and was 9,840 by 2021. 

That’s a staggering 38 per cent jump in population in just six years. While Cromwell had obviously the highest growth rate, Vincent had a population growth of a respectable 17 per cent and both Teviot and Māniatoto recorded positive growth of around 5.5 per cent over the same time period.

So, what does all this actually mean?

It depends on who you talk to, and I am well aware for some people it means things aren’t how they used to be and, in some cases, they aren’t happy about it. It means we have a lot of new people, new cultures, new ways of thinking coming into the district. This was well displayed (I am told, Covid kept me at home) at the South Asian Festival held in Alexandra last weekend which I have heard nothing but rave reviews about.

It means we have incredible pressure on our housing market; sure as eggs we haven’t built as many new houses as is needed to handle this growth. 

And it means we are going to need to change the way we do things to accommodate this growth, because guess what, it isn’t going to stop any time soon. 

That need to change is why the current notification of Plan Change 19 by your council is so important. If adopted in its current form or similar, PC 19 will allow (among other things), as of right, far greater density of housing in affected towns.

Some people aren’t going to like that but when faced with the growth we have had and will keep having, choices are very limited.