NIWA’s seasonal climate outlook (August - October 2023) for Central indicates a shift towards El Niño, with temperatures most likely to be above average, rainfall likely to be near normal or above, and increasing westerly winds. 

Meteorologist Ben Noll said August would likely be a “tale of two halves” with a dry start for much of New Zealand and then a second half with more westerly winds.

“Nothing in the weather and climate system is linear so there [are] bumps along the way but we are firmly progressing towards El Niño.”

For Central, a pulse of colder than average temperatures kicks off August but by the second week high pressure is starting to build and dryer conditions do look likely. 

Keep your woollies handy: NIWA has tweeted forecast images of snowfall over 3cm (on left), and over 15cm (on right) for Tuesday and Wednesday August 1-2. PHOTO: Twitter  

Ben urged skiers to take advantage of any early-mid August snowfall in the Otago ski fields.

He said that once the westerly wind pattern kicks in it would cause the snow level to rise “way up the mountains”, and the snow could be washed away by the rain and warmer temperatures during the back half of August.

“It does look kind of dicey, hit and miss but if it snows get out on the fields and enjoy it.”

Rainfall is looking normal for Central and although increased westerly winds are coming, it will not be completely dry. 

Rainfall and temperatures from NIWA’s three monthly outlook. PHOTO: Supplied 

“With these westerlies that we’re expecting second half of August, September and October. Some of that may be so vigorous that it actually spills over the Southern alps into the likes of Canterbury and maybe even Central and Eastern Otago,” Ben said.  

Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely to be near normal (45 per cent chance) for Central.

Read more on the seasonal forecast on NIWA’s website.