Marine heatwave conditions, tropical cyclone season, high humidity, elevated risk of drought conditions and difficulty sleeping: Summer is already on our doorstep according to weather experts. 

NIWA’s seasonal climate outlook* (SCO) for the next couple of months is predicting temperatures above average for the season. 

NIWA forecaster Ben Noll said key points were “hello humidity”, “elevated dryness for some regions” and “warming up air and sea”.

In his October SCO, Ben’s “big bold prediction” was that “things are going to be pretty toasty”.

He thinks New Zealand will finish December with a higher ranking in terms of our summer temperatures than last year. 

Last summer was NZ’s fifth warmest on record.

NIWA Meteorologist/forecaster Ben Noll

Ben said easterly winds will be common, and there may be bigger gaps and longer dry spells between rainfall events, which would be difficult to pinpoint.

“Easterly winds will continue as we go through the season and at times will increase the odds of tropical rainmakers to come down.”

Soils are drying out in Otago and in other South Island areas and farmers and forecasters are keeping an eye on this, he said. 

La Niña is still a strong climate driver this season and it will be combined with a “pattern of variability from time to time”.

Ben said experts are watching a warm patch in the western Pacific ocean which could lead to more thunderstorm activity and rainfall towards the end of summer and into autumn. 

For marine temperatures the oceans are warming up in November and December - good news for holidaymakers heading to the beaches but bringing impacts to marine life. 

NIWA’s modelling of sea surface temperatures from September (top left) to February 2023. The dark red indicates warmer ocean temperatures

MetService communications meteorologist Lewis Ferris said the rest of November looks to remain pretty changeable.

“There will be periods of rain mixed in with drier times but we aren’t seeing any decent signal for a prolonged period of dry or warm weather.

“The bright side of this is that these systems seem to be approaching from the west so the rain will tend to be brief and temperatures remain about normal for the end of November.”

MetService predictions for the next five days for Central

*The seasonal climate outlook covers November 22 - January 23 and can be viewed here.