Central’s autumn weather themes are above or near average temperatures, quite high fire weather indices, and in late March and early April significant winds for the South Island, according to NIWA forecasters.  

Yesterday marked the autumnal equinox, which is the halfway point between summer and winter solstices, when the sun is above the equator, and day and night are equal in length.

The morning started with cars found parked outside in Alexandra that had frost on windscreens, and the temperature was a mere 1.5 degrees Ceslius at 8am. 

NIWA meteorologist/forecaster Ben Noll said the country was now in a “fading El Niño”.

Dry spells may linger into the new season.

“Temperature wise it is unlikely to be a colder than average autumn season . . . rainfall . . . for the season as a whole, it’s going to take a while to get there, there is some dryness yet to come for those areas that could use the rain.”

Forecast rainfall and temperature from NIWA’s seasonal climate outlook March - May 2024. PHOTO: Supplied 

Ben said in late March and into early April more high-pressure systems may arrive.

“[The] nice autumn weather . . . could be back as we make our way into the mid and late stages of the season.” 

For the season as a whole, soil moisture levels are most likely to be near normal (45 per cent chance) while river flows are equally likely to be near normal or above normal (40 per cent chance each) for the Central region.

Central’s rainfall will be equally likely to be near normal, or above normal, and wind speeds are expected to be stronger than normal.

The news team will publish a weather outlook for the Easter holiday weekend on Good Friday.

Further information: see NIWA’s drought forecasting dashboard and NIWA’s Seasonal Climate Outlook March-May 2024.

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